發布時間：2010年2月|PLOS BIOL 8（2）：E1000316。DOI：10.1371 / journal.pbio.1000316

Absolute humidity and the seasonal onset of influenza in the continental United States

薩滿j等人。

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Abstract

Influenza A incidence peak during winter in temperate regions. The cause of seasonality in influenza transmission is of interest for public health and basic science but not well understood.

研究表明，相對濕度（RH）會影響流感病毒傳播（IVT）和流感病毒存活（IVS）。作者重新分析了這種數據，以探索戶外絕對濕度（AH）和IVT和IVS之間的關係。它們注意到絕對濕度（AH）影響傳輸效率和IVS比RH更大。

“In temperate regions, both outdoor and indoor AH possess a strong seasonal cycle that minimizes in winter. This seasonal cycle is consistent with a wintertime increase in IVS and IVT and may explain the seasonality of influenza”.

By considering the daily negative deviation of AH from the multiyear daily average in US States, the authors modeled the excess “Pneumonia and Influenza” rate (P&I) by using a classical SIRS model (Susceptible - Infected - Resistant - Re-Susceptible). Negative deviations could typically be observed in the 4 weeks prior to the onset of influenza epidemics. The simulation of yearly curves for mean daily excess of P&I mortality fitted well with the observed statistical data.

作者表明，對於戶外的負偏差數據啊，可以開發出現的疫情流感的短期概率預測。